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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Tamino, Race 2
Longshot: Gracie’s Delight, Race 8

R1

Oath
Jayme’s Turn
Ms Nikki D

#6 OATH (9/5): Is one of several imposing-looking favorites on the Thursday program. She drops down in class for this one and looks like the controlling speed. Linda Rice and Manny Franco have been winning a lot lately, and they could find themselves in the winner’s circle again; #5 JAYME’S TURN (3-1): Is the “other” Rice trainee in this field, and she most recently ran fourth for a slightly larger tag a few weeks ago. Blinkers come off for this event, and she’s another that could be forwardly-placed early on; #3 MS NIKKI D (6-1): Is coming off of a career-best effort, where she ran third against similar going seven furlongs. She’s a closer, which I don’t usually love in races out of the Wilson chute, but at the very least, she’s been reasonably competitive in a similar spot.

R2

Tamino
Into Diamonds
Light Fantastic

#8 TAMINO (7/2): Runs on turf for the first time since his first two career starts in early-2025 at Santa Anita. He ran twice on both occasions, and getting back to the lawn could be a big, big plus (especially against a field of restricted claimers that doesn’t seem to include any world-beaters); #3 INTO DIAMONDS (9/2): Goes second off a long layoff and takes a big drop in class. He showed some potential in 2024 and 2025 before going to the sidelines, and running for a tag for the first time could wake him up; #6 LIGHT FANTASTIC (3-1): Cuts back from a route to a sprint, and he has back races going short that aren’t bad. One of those was a third-place finish at this route last summer, and this feels like what he wants to do.

R3

Max O Nidas
Parkridge
Maddenbleu

#3 MAX O NIDAS (8/5): Debuts for Steve Asmussen off of a very strong bullet drill at Churchill. Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride, which could be a clue, and while this $40,000 purchase debuting for $35,000 is a bit of a red flag, he probably doesn’t have to be much to win on debut; #4 PARKRIDGE (4-1): Did no running in his debut and takes a drop into the maiden claiming ranks at second asking. Bill Mott trainees often need a race to get going, and his numbers with similar class-droppers are very, very strong; #6 MADDENBLEU (5/2): Debuts for Linda Rice, whose numbers with first-time starters are just so-so. However, this barn has been winning with everything in sight lately, first-call rider Manny Franco will be aboard, and the most recent gate drill looks reasonably promising.

R4

Cash Burn
Dry Drastic
Secret Connection

#4 CASH BURN (8/5): Hammered for $370,000 last year and comes in off of a series of very strong drills ahead of her debut for Chad Brown. This daughter of Nyquist is out of a debut winner, and her second dam, Maddalena, was also a first-out winner who added a Grade 3 stakes race; #2 DRY DRASTIC (2-1): Makes her first start for George Weaver and has enticed Hall of Famer John Velazquez to ride. Her dirt works look solid, and this barn can certainly win with first-time starters, but I’m wondering what the story is behind two recent works on the grass; #5 SECRET CONNECTION (5-1): Was bet to 7/2 in her debut but didn’t do much running that day, finishing eighth of 10. Improvement may be coming at second asking from this $90,000 auction purchase, and it’s worth noting that Manny Franco sees fit to hop aboard.

R5

No Compromise (MTO)
Deported
Oligarch

#7 DEPORTED (8/5): Makes his U.S. debut for Wesley Ward, whose numbers this summer aren’t great. However, he gets Lasix for the first time, which can definitely move a horse forward, and he’s facing a group that just hasn’t accomplished much; #3 OLIGARCH (5-1): Ran well two and three back before being compromised by a wide trip last time out. He gets a more friendly draw here and should be forwardly-placed, and we may get a bit of value here given the last-out clunker; #1 HIMOTHY (10-1): Goes back to the dirt and should be on or near the lead early on, given the inside draw and the presence of Kendrick Carmouche. He led most of the way three back against a better group, and if he gets comfortable, he could be the one they have to run down turning for home.

R6

Valtellina
Sweetest Princess
Hello Beauty

#2 VALTELLINA (1-1): Takes a massive drop in class after tackling graded stakes company last time out. Her effort two back in the Critical Eye was very good, and while she’s a closer in this Wilson chute race, her numbers dwarf those of her competition and she may be able to be a bit more forward in this optional claimer for state-breds; #3 SWEETEST PRINCESS (5-1): Figures to be prominent early and has four wins at this one-mile distance. Jose Lezcano got on the board this past weekend after a rough start to the summer, and this mare’s inside speed could give him a chance here; #4 HELLO BEAUTY (8-1): Comes back to dirt, which sure looks to be her preferred surface, and gets reunited with Flavien Prat, who guided her to her most recent win in April. I’m not sure she’s faster than my second choice, but the cutback in distance to one she’s won at in the past should help her, and the morning line price is an attractive one.

R7

Sculcos Folly (MTO)
A Little At First
Jaxer

#3 A LITTLE AT FIRST (3-1): May have moved a bit early in the Rick Violette and gets another shot at this level in the Cab Calloway. Javier Castellano is 2-for-3 on him, and he’s back aboard here. He could sit an ideal stalking trip, and a little more patience might get him home; #7 JAXER (5/2): Got pretty good near the end of last year, when he rallied to take the Notebook over a solid group. He hasn’t raced since, but this is a patient barn that’s heated up of late, and Flavien Prat sees fit to ride when he likely had several options in the Thursday feature; #1 CHUMMERS (3-1): Went from winning a restricted claimer to winning a stakes race when he sprang a mild upset in the Rick Violette. He definitely benefited from a fast pace that day, though, and while there’s some speed signed on, deep closers on the inner turf sometimes need quite a bit to go right.

R8

Gracie’s Delight
She’s Got Will
River Tay

#6 GRACIE’S DELIGHT (8-1): Goes up in class, but does so first off the claim for Linda Rice after a runaway score at Keeneland. Her early speed is a plus, and she’s been working very, very well since coming to New York. If she breaks on top beneath John Velazquez, she could forget to stop at a price; #2 SHE’S GOT WILL (3-1): Is 2-for-2 over this turf course and goes first off the claim for Brad Cox, who’s one of the best in the country with new acquisitions. Her best race could win this comfortably, but I am a bit concerned that we’ve only seen her once since December and she drops in class in her first try for this outfit; #4 RIVER TAY (10-1): Won four in a row not long ago and cuts back to sprinting, which feels like what she wants to do. She’s a deep closer, which isn’t a great thing, but if they fly early, this one could come rolling late.